Tonight is a big night in college football. Maybe even bigger than Saturday. And this is with only 2 games. For a college student like myself, this is the type of day when I get zero work done. Zilch. Nada. I'm all in on sports today (actually typing this in class). As my friend and I say, you're either all in or all out.
Baylor v. Oklahoma is a bigger game than most people believe. Baylor is ranked No. 6 in the BCS standings with an offense that could take out a city. Oklahoma is a top-10 team (by virtue of being exactly No. 10). A win for Baylor here would be huge, as it not only keeps their hopes alive for a possible shot at the championship but sets them up well for for a tough finishing stretch. A loss would drop them down in the rankings quite a bit, and would not be a good way to enter the homestretch (with the potential to leapfrog Ohio State later in the year for No. 4). Oklahoma, on the other hand, is just good. They're not elite this year, but they are very good. I've only watched them play once, but I think they have enough to give Baylor a fight.
The only "real" teams Baylor has faced have been Kansas State and West Virginia. Both teams exposed some problems with the Baylor team: West Virginia, as a team with a half-decent offense of its own, dropped 42 on the Bears. And Kansas State, known for being fundamentally sound on defense, held the Bears to a season-low 35 points. I would gamble that Oklahoma has an offense that can put up 40+ on Baylor, and a defense that can hold Baylor to less than 50 points. Basically, this has the potential to be a very exciting, high-scoring game.
I don't know if I can say more about Oregon v. Stanford than has already been said. The Ducks can score with the best of them. Stanford has a very sound team all around. Both are top-5 teams, which means this has very direct consequences for the National Championship. If Stanford wins out, they still have a shot at the Natty (though very, very slim). A loss to Oregon would not be the end of the world for the Cardinal, but it would destroy Oregon's hopes for the season. The Ducks came in hoping for a chance at the Natty, and if they win out they get to go. But winning out is the essential part, and Stanford on the road is easily the most difficult game left on their schedule.
So what will happen? As someone who comes from the West Coast and is a Duck fan, I think the Ducks will put up around 40 points. I don't think Stanford will score 30. Stanford just doesn't have the offense to stand up to a very underrated Oregon defense. Stanford thrives on running the ball and play action passes off of an established run game, but Oregon's D-Line matches up with with the Stanford O-Line. On the other side of the ball, with a week to rest and a finally healthy group of offensive terrors (Mariota, DAT, Marshall, Tyner, Addison, Huff, etc.), I don't think Stanford will make it through the second half. Like most Stanford-Oregon match ups, I predict a close game at the half but a quick Oregon run halfway through the third quarter to put the game out of reach.
I'm excited!
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Friday, November 1, 2013
Deciphering the Football Blowout
Ful disclosure: I am only a casual football fan. But I am an avid sports fan, and so I think I have the ability to write down my thoughts. This has been a question that has bothered me for quite some time: what does it mean for a football game to be a blowout, and how can we compare different blowouts.
For example, Oregon beats Tennessee at home in week 3 by a score of 59-14.
Alabama beat Tennessee at home in week 9 by a score of 45-10.
It seems pretty clear that both Oregon and Alabama are significantly better than Tennessee this year. But can we use these games against common opponents to determine which team is better?
At first glance, it would seem that the Oregon defense is about 30% worse than Alabama while the offense is about 25% better. So the offense/defense comparison doesn't seem to work, since 5% is really a very small amount. But we know that neither team actually tried after the second quarter, at which point Alabama led 35-0 and Oregon led 38-7. You can jump to all sorts of conclusions based on this, too: Oregon was able to score more points but couldn't keep Tennessee from scoring, so they must be worse.
But that's all missing the bigger picture: both Oregon and Alabama had their respective games in the bag at the start of halftime. In reality, it was clear about halfway through the 1st quarter that the game would be a blowout. Strange things happen in blowouts. Offenses start slowing down and stop playing at their normal intensity. Defenses start playing prevent, knowing they don't have to give it 100% on each play. And, at a certain point, the second string teams come in to play, leading to even fewer points scored and more points allowed.
In the world of college football, the timing of games is incredibly important. These two games were separated by 6 weeks, which is enough time for an entire Georgia team to get injured and fall out of the national title talk. Lots can happen. The team that played at Alabama was not the team that played at Oregon. At Oregon they were excited and overly energized for a new season against a strong opponent, and it led to several mistakes but some excitement early on. The team in Alabama was worn down from a tough string of games and looked defeated after the first Bama touchdown.
Basically, you can't compare two football games. I would even argue that you can't compare games in back-to-back weeks. Teams have good days and bad days, and sometimes it can be as little as the food the quarterback ate last night that determines the outcome of a jump ball.
A blowout is a blowout, and I don't see any reasonable way to compare these two games other than knowing that both Alabama and Oregon are both significantly better than Tennessee.
For example, Oregon beats Tennessee at home in week 3 by a score of 59-14.
Alabama beat Tennessee at home in week 9 by a score of 45-10.
It seems pretty clear that both Oregon and Alabama are significantly better than Tennessee this year. But can we use these games against common opponents to determine which team is better?
At first glance, it would seem that the Oregon defense is about 30% worse than Alabama while the offense is about 25% better. So the offense/defense comparison doesn't seem to work, since 5% is really a very small amount. But we know that neither team actually tried after the second quarter, at which point Alabama led 35-0 and Oregon led 38-7. You can jump to all sorts of conclusions based on this, too: Oregon was able to score more points but couldn't keep Tennessee from scoring, so they must be worse.
But that's all missing the bigger picture: both Oregon and Alabama had their respective games in the bag at the start of halftime. In reality, it was clear about halfway through the 1st quarter that the game would be a blowout. Strange things happen in blowouts. Offenses start slowing down and stop playing at their normal intensity. Defenses start playing prevent, knowing they don't have to give it 100% on each play. And, at a certain point, the second string teams come in to play, leading to even fewer points scored and more points allowed.
In the world of college football, the timing of games is incredibly important. These two games were separated by 6 weeks, which is enough time for an entire Georgia team to get injured and fall out of the national title talk. Lots can happen. The team that played at Alabama was not the team that played at Oregon. At Oregon they were excited and overly energized for a new season against a strong opponent, and it led to several mistakes but some excitement early on. The team in Alabama was worn down from a tough string of games and looked defeated after the first Bama touchdown.
Basically, you can't compare two football games. I would even argue that you can't compare games in back-to-back weeks. Teams have good days and bad days, and sometimes it can be as little as the food the quarterback ate last night that determines the outcome of a jump ball.
A blowout is a blowout, and I don't see any reasonable way to compare these two games other than knowing that both Alabama and Oregon are both significantly better than Tennessee.
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